Resumen

GOMEZ-MENDOZA, Leticia; BELLO MENDOZA, Lourdes  y  CRUZ TORRES, Dulce Abigail. Regional climate change scenarios in Natural Protected Area Sierra Gorda, Guanajuato, Mexico. Acta univ [online]. 2017, vol.27, n.1, pp.55-66. ISSN 2007-9621.  https://doi.org/10.15174/au.2017.1077.

Natural protected areas represent a form of mitigation and adaptation to climate change. Results of a Stochastic Weather Generator (SWG) applied to the Natural Protected Area, Biosphere Reserve "Sierra Gorda Guanajuato" (RBSGGto) are shown in this paper. Results obtained for 2010-2099 period by LARS-WG for RBSGGto show an increase in average temperature between 1° C and 2° C, while precipitation will increase to 3 mm. Hydrological implications of basin are analyzed based on these regionalized scenarios and the most affected areas are characterized by climate change and their effects on biodiversity conservation. Results suggest that risk can diminish if actual conservation actions continue. However, present and future precipitation inputs will not be enough to support hydraulic projects in future for the region so, water supply programs must been revised.

Palabras llave : LARS-WG; downscaling; Guanajuato; climate change; Sierra Gorda-Guanajuato.

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