Resumen

ANDRADE DE SANTIAGO, Estefanía; PONCE, Juan  y  PONTON CEVALLOS, Daniel. Evaluation of the Impact of the Security Policies Exerted from 2007 to 2014 on the Homicide Rate in Ecuador: Synthetic Control Method (SCM). Gest. polít. pública [online]. 2021, vol.30, n.2, pp.101-131.  Epub 04-Sep-2023. ISSN 1405-1079.  https://doi.org/10.29265/gypp.v30i2.880.

From 2007 to 2014, a set of citizen security policies was implemented in Ecuador; this set included mainly: a considerable increase in crime control and punishment strategies combined with situational prevention strategies. This study evaluates the impact of said set of measures on the homicide rate per 100 000 inhabitants by using the synthetic control method (MCS). It is argued that due to the combination of punitive and situational prevention strategies, a significant reduction in the homicide rate per 100 000 inhabitants between 2011 and 2016 was evident, representing around 11 743 homicides avoided. The reduction effect ranges from 5.86 to 17.33 points per year, with a maximum of 17.33 points in 2015. This effect was the result of the accumulation of the effect of the policies, which remained in force after their implementation.

Palabras llave : homicide; security policies; synthetic control method; Ecuador; impact evaluation.