Resumen

GUTIERREZ-SALAZAR, María del Pilar; MORALES-RAMIREZ, José de Jesús  y  JIMENEZ-GARCIA, Gustavo Adolfo. Previous caries experience in risk prediction: Methodological issues. Bol. Med. Hosp. Infant. Mex. [online]. 2008, vol.65, n.5, pp.341-352. ISSN 1665-1146.

Introduction. Because of the reported values of sensitivity and specificity, it has been concluded that previous caries experience (PCE) is not a suitable method in caries risk prediction. However, PCE is the most accessible of the methods in caries prediction. The aim of this study is to analyze methodological issues used in prediction studies and to show the advantage of PCE for risk prediction. Methods. This is a 3-year-follow-up study in which the ability of PCE was studied as a predictive risk factor in 1 841 schoolchildren. The following parameters: classification of the population in high at low risk groups, use of sensitivity and specificity values, and use of quantitative criteria were analyzed. Results. Important differences in caries severity among risk groups were identified by means of the qualitative criteria; the risk ratio (RR) to present extender carious lesions was 10 times higher (RR =10.25, 95%CI =3.74-28.05) for the high risk group (RIV), respect to low risk group (RI), while it was only 3-fold higher (RR =3.20, 95%CI =2.49-4.10) using the number of affected teeth. The values of RR in the middle risk groups showed that the division of the population in high and low risk is inadequate and therefore neither is the use values of sensitivity and specificity in assessing the predictive ability of the PCE. Conclusion. PCE is a powerful tool to determine the risk of caries in schoolchildren when methodological suitable designs are applied.

Palabras llave : Dental caries; risk, prediction; dental caries, risk; school, children; methodology, risk.