Introduction:

Maguey is closely related to the marginalized areas of Mexico and lacks innovation processes; it mainly produces in Oaxaca for Mezcal and the production of pulque in Hidalgo and Tlaxcala. The objective of this study was to financially assess the pulque industry through its differentiation, generating a mead production project for agave syrup with respect to a project that only produces pulque considering the price volatility in states of Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, and Oaxaca. The hypothesis is that uncertainty creates opportunities that add value and benefit the producer.

Method:

Maguey pulquero prices and yields from 2005 to 2018 were obtained from SIAP. Production costs and investments were obtained from the Xamini S.P.R. of R. I. and were considered for the three states. The possibility of innovating pulque process from a traditional point of view through the Net Present Value (NPV) was analyzed; however, since it does not consider the price volatility, an evaluation was used using real options with binomial trees and Black-Scholes formulas with expansion scenarios to two hectares.

Results:

Hidalgo had, on average, the best yields, and which positions him as the main producer of this drink; however, its trend was downward. Oaxaca was the entity with the highest critical value (1.771) because it presented greater price volatility; therefore, the risk in investment is higher. Through the traditional evaluation, the projects in the pulque industry of Hidalgo and Tlaxcala were accepted with values greater than unity, not so for Oaxaca. With the evaluation of real options, once it is innovated, the project increased six times more for Hidalgo and Tlaxcala increased 37 times more. The numbers turned positive for Oaxaca, but it did not recover the investment initially; a similar situation occurs when the option is given to expanding the innovation to two hectares.

With the evaluation of real options, once it is innovated, the project increased six times more for Hidalgo and Tlaxcala increased 37 times more, for Oaxaca the numbers turned positive, but it was not able to recover the initial investment. A similar situation happens when the option is given to expand the innovation to two hectares.

Discussion or Conclusion:

For a differentiated product such as agave syrup, the risk increases, but also the possibilities of increasing your income and being competitive in the market, which happens when the product is associated with the current needs of the consumer. This applies to Hidalgo and Tlaxcala, however, for Oaxaca, the project to differentiate the pulque industry is not very viable, since its production is irrelevant compared to mezcal. This study confirmed the hypothesis, when the product is differentiated in its production process, benefits increase, despite the uncertainty.

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