Resumen

RUIZ-CORRAL, José Ariel et al. Regionalization of climate change in Mexico. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.spe13, pp.2451-2464. ISSN 2007-0934.

The objective of this research was to regionalize climate change patterns for Mexico based on values of thermal and precipitations change from 708 cells of 0.5 x 0.5° arc. The values of thermal and precipitation changes were settled by subtracting the climatology 2050 Rcp4.5 from climatology reference 1961 to 2010, considering the variables mean maximum temperature (Tx), mean minimum temperature (Ti), mean temperature (Tm), thermal oscillation (OT) and precipitation (P) of the spring-summer period (PV, from May to October), autumn-winter (OI, from November to April) and annual. The climatology 2050 Rcp4.5 was derived from an assembly model from the median value of 11 general circulation models (MCG) reduced in scale, calibrated and belonging to the coupled model inter-comparison project phase 5 (CMIP5), reported in the 5th delivery from IPCC: BCC-CSM1-1, CCSM4, GISS-E2-R, HadGEM2-AO, HadGEM2-ES, IPSL-CM5A-LR, MIROC-ESM-CHEM, MIROC-ESM, MIROC5, MRI-CGCM3, NorESM1-M. The values of thermal and precipitation change from the 708 cells were subjected to a multivariate analysis including a cluster analysis (Ward method) and principal components (ACP). To estimate the optimal number of groups, contained validation was used in the Clustan Graphics V8 program, using 200 replications. Subsequently it conducted a discriminant analysis to minimize misclassifications in clusters from 708 cells. This analysis was conducted based on the statistical analysis system (SAS). The results showed that the variation in the values of climate change in Mexico for 2050 can be explained by two main components, which together account for just over 84% of the variation. CP1 was composed by variables related to thermal change values and CP2 by variables related to precipitation change values. In the cluster analysis the formation of 11 groups of cells with different statistical characteristics of climate change were reported, ranging from superficial cooling levels (-1 to 0 °C) to severe warming levels (> 3 °C); superficial humidification levels (0 to +10 mm seasonal precipitation) to severe drying levels (-300 to -150 mm seasonal precipitation); and, very superficial levels of tropicalization (-0.5 0 °C) to moderate levels of continentalization (1 to 1.5 °C). However, the results represent a first approach in this topic; have a strong statistical support that allows using the clustering obtained for agricultural planning purposes.

Palabras llave : global warming; regional climate change; numerical taxonomy.

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