Resumen

PEREZ-MIRANDA, Ramiro et al. Spatial predictions of land use changes in Texcoco, Estado de México state. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2011, vol.2, n.5, pp.59-72. ISSN 2007-1132.

The study of the dynamics of land use allows to study the use, handling and use man makes of nature, and allows the prediction of the tendency for making appropriate decisions for the occupation of the territory. The methodology was to detect changes in land use by analyzing aerial photographs and satellite images from 1993 and 2004. Subsequently appealed to concepts and techniques of spatial multicriteria evaluation, fuzzy logic, cellular automata and Markov chains to model the use change scenario for 2014. The outcomes identified for the period 1993-2004 indicate an increase in the use urban extension 173 has, a miner of 92 ha, water bodies of 3 ha and a decrease in agricultural use of 182 ha, 64 ha grassland induced, forest 14 ha, 7 ha reforestation and natural grassland of 1 ha. The projection for 2014 show increases in 154 ha urban, mining and natural pasture 81 ha 13 ha, the uses are agriculture would be reduced 165 ha, 56 ha induced grassland, forest 23 ha, and reforestation 6 ha. Urban and mining applications grow on agricultural uses, induced grassland, and to a lesser extent, into the forest and reforestation. Urban use is growing at an annual rate of 15.7 ha and 15 ha in the first period and projected, respectively.

Palabras llave : Multicriteria analysis; cellular automata; Markov chains; urban growth; GIS; land use.

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