Resumen

PEREZ MIRANDA, Ramiro et al. Potential distribution of Lophodermium spp. in conifer forests, with climate change scenarios. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.36, pp.81-97. ISSN 2007-1132.

In the conifer forests of the states of Puebla, Tlaxcala and Hidalgo, Mexico, leaf fall problems have been registered, mainly due to attack by the Lophodermium spp. fungus. Alterations of the current climate conditions will play a significant role in the future distribution of the fungus. The objective of the present work was to determine the current potential distribution, in climate change (CC) scenarios, of Lophodermium spp. in the vegetation of the states mentioned above. The Genetic Algorithnm for Rule-set Production (GARP) was applied to generate the potential distribution models based on various climate coverages (both current and with CC scenarios), and of sites of occurrence of the fungus. The results suggest that areas with a high potential are located on the Sierra Norte de Puebla. The current potential surface area with a high category is larger during the development period (March-June), with 83 197 ha, compared to the growth phase (September-December), with 74 829 ha. With the CC scenario RCP4.5 (for the year 2039), the high class surface area was presented as in a development stage, with 159 4333 ha. In contrast, with scenario RCP8.5, the surface area during the growth phase was larger, with 138 810 ha. A higher risk of occurrence of the fungus was observed under the current and CC RCP4.5 scenarios in its development phase, and under scenario RCP8.5 in its growth phase.

Palabras llave : Pine needles; GARP algorithm; pine forest; climate change; current distribution; Lophodermium spp.

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