Resumen

ZAMUDIO SANCHEZ, F. J.; ROMO LOZANO, J. L.  y  CERVANTES CARRILLO, J. O. A.. Financial and risk assessment of a commercial forest plantation in Zihuateutla, Puebla. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2010, vol.16, n.1, pp.69-78. ISSN 2007-4018.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2009.05.012.

The purpose of this work was to estimate and analyze the profitability and risk of a commercial forest plantation of bracatinga species in the region of Zihuateutla, Puebla, using indicators of financial profitability: Net Present Value (NPV), Benefit Cost Ratio (R B/C), Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Expected Value of the Net Present Value σ (NPV) and Standard Deviation of the Net Present Value c (NPV). The planning horizon was six years, and a discount rate of 4.7 % and a risk-free rate of 8.79 % were used. To accomplish the financial and risk analysis, the prospective volumes of bracatinga were predicted at six years of age. The following values of the profitability indicators were obtained for the plantation: a) Financial: NPV = $ 26,593.42, R B/C = 2.32 and IRR = 32.74 %; b) Risk: E(NPV) = $ 18,825.33, and c (NPV) = $ 3,944.60. It is concluded that the commercial plantation is profitable and runs a very small risk since its production costs are very low and benefits are high.

Palabras llave : Mimosa scabrella B.; financial analysis; risk; cultivated forests.