Resumen

HERNANDEZ ALVAREZ, Zenón  y  RAMOS ALVAREZ, María de Jesús. The Optimal Time to Invest in a Coffee Agribusiness Company (an Application of the Real Options Theory). Rev. mex. econ. finanz [online]. 2020, vol.15, n.1, pp.123-134.  Epub 03-Jul-2020. ISSN 2448-6795.  https://doi.org/10.21919/remef.v15i1.354.

The high volatility of the real price of coffee in the international market makes traditional valuation insufficient to value investment projects in the coffee agribusiness. This work illustrates how to quantify and incorporate uncertainty in the valuation to determine the optimal timing when a coffee company would invest to market its coffee, as roasted coffee and green coffee, in the national market. Using the optimal time to invest model, the real options theory helps decide whether or not to invest through a critical value. For the case of the social enterprise under study, it was found that the investment must be carried out since the project value ( $V=\text{\$}{2}^{\prime }\mathrm{481,796.31}$) is greater than the critical value ( $V_{\sigma }^{*}=\text{\$}{2}^{\prime }\mathrm{481,796.31}$). If the company only sells green coffee ( $\sigma =27.94\text{\%}$), its decision would be not to invest ( $V_{\sigma }^{*}<V$). When volatility is high, the investment must be deferred. With its volatility in mind, the “true value” of the investment could be estimated to help management in the decision-making process.

Palabras llave : G11; G13; O13; Q13; Q14; traditional valuation; real options; critical value; volatility; green coffee.