Resumen

ROSALES-MANZO, D. et al. Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy system to predict propagation risk of Black Sigatoka Mycosphaerella fijiensis in banana crop. RIIIT. Rev. int. investig. innov. tecnol. [online]. 2020, vol.8, n.44, pp.12-28.  Epub 05-Feb-2021. ISSN 2007-9753.

Banana plantation are the fourth most important crop worldwide and the most important tropical fruit. Their cultivation is carried out in more than 120 countries, producing approximately 100 million tons per year. México is one of the principal banana producers and exporters. However, its quality is affected by diseases such as black sigatoka, which, since its first appearance in the country in 1981, has been the disease that generates the greatest economic losses, because it has not been able to eradicate due to the climatic conditions in which it spreads. The principal variables that affect black sigatoka’s presence are temperature and relative humidity; and if it is not controlled, the pathogen can reduce up to 50 % the bunch weight and causes losses up to 100 % of the production. This research paper proposes a fuzzy inference system Takagi-Sugeno type, with a constant output, to determine the risk of black sigatoka proliferation in banana crops, through the analysis of temperature (13-38 °C) and relative humidity (0-100 %). The fuzzy system was developed in two applications, 1) MATLAB fuzzy logic tool and, 2) the library JFuzzyLogic of JAVA language. For testing, historical data of monthly average of temperature and relative humidity were used, from january 2015 to june 2019, in Manzanillo, one of the cities with the greatest banana production in Colima state, México, obtaining similar results with both applications. For the system validation the determination coefficient ( r 2 ) was applied, with results greater than 0.9, demonstrating that the predictive model is acceptable. This research presents an innovative approach using a Takagi-Sugeno diffuse system with constant output that will help to prevent the risk of black sigatoka proliferation, allowing banana crop growers to have a tool to effectively fight the pathogen.

Palabras llave : fuzzy logic; pathogens; fuzzy inference system.