Resumen

VERA, Leonardo V.. The Determinants of Credit Demand: an Estimation for Venezuela Using a Monthly Time Series Model. Inv. Econ [online]. 2003, vol.62, n.245, pp.107-149. ISSN 0185-1667.

For more than a decade, the credit market in Venezuela has been witnessing a progressive process of contraction without there being any rigorous explanation for this behaviour. This paper suggests that it is possible to identify the causes in the determinants operating in the demand for credit, and to illustrate this presents an estimation using monthly macro-economic series relating to the period 1986-2000. The estimation is made on the basis of a theoretical model that starts with the restriction of company financing. Assuming, in the post-Keynesian tradition, that the banks are the price fixers in the credit market, it is possible to identify market demand. The methodology and proof of co-integration indicate unambiguously that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between real credit stock, the index of economic activity, the (nominal) interest rate, the price-cost margin and the real exchange rate, in addition to other signs consistent with the theory. The short-term dynamic derived from a Model of Error Correction Vectors, corroborates the results obtained in the long-term relationship. By the same token, there is no evidence of endogeneity, either in the interest rate or in the index of economic activity, and this indicates that it is possible to suppose that the market is dominated by the demand side. Credit in real terms supplied to the private sector, responds positively to the rhythm of economic activity, to the cash flow of the companies, and to the effective real exchange rate, but maintains an inverse relationship to the interest rate.

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