Resumo

GONZALEZ-GONZALEZ, MA; RAMOS-GONZALEZ, JL  e  BAEZ-GONZALEZ, AD. Validation of a forecasting method for monthly rainfall in Mexico. Universidad y ciencia [online]. 2009, vol.25, n.2, pp.187-192. ISSN 0186-2979.

The categorical evaluation of the stochastic model for rainfall forecasting, at 31 locations in Mexico, based on the ENSO phases, showed a rate of monthly hits of 0.63 during the year of the study. However, the Hanssen-Kuipers score that evaluates forecast models indicated a score of 0.499 for the year. It was considered a partly acceptable model as the validation of a larger number of forecasts is required to obtain a more accurate scoring.

Palavras-chave : Validation; monthly rainfall forecast; hits; Hanssen-Kuipers score.