Resumo

TINOCO-RUEDA, J. A.; GOMEZ-DIAZ, J. D.  e  MONTERROSO-RIVAS, A. I.. Climate Change Effects on Maize Potential Distribution in Jalisco State, Mexico. Terra Latinoam [online]. 2011, vol.29, n.2, pp.161-168. ISSN 2395-8030.

Climate change could modify the plant production and distribution. The present research evaluates the potential distribution of maize in Jalisco state for the period spring-summer, the factors used were temperature, soil water available, soil type and land slope. Three scenarios were evaluated, baseline (1961-1990) and the general circulation models GFDL-TR-90 and HADLEY-TR-00 for the A2 scenario and the time period 2050. Main results show an increment in no suitable surface for maize in 63.6% with GFDL model and in 90.8% with HADLEY model, the sites with more changes in maize distribution were in center, north and east of Jalisco. The comparisons between the actual and future conditions in the behavior of four environmental factors conclude that the limiting component was the soil moisture storage for maize distribution.

Palavras-chave : global warming; land evaluation; water balance; water requirements.