Resumo

MAYA AMBIA, Carlos Javier  e  PERAZA GARAY, Felipe de Jesús. Structural change and horticultural exports from Mexico to the United States: Analysis of the historical performance of Sinaloa's major export products. Estud. soc [online]. 2011, vol.19, n.37, pp.65-90. ISSN 0188-4557.

The article tests the hypothesis of structural change, in statistical terms, in the case of time series of exports from Mexico to the United States, of five horticultural products (pumpkins, eggplants, peppers, cucumbers and tomatoes), in whose production Sinaloa is a national leader. These five products account for about 46% of the value of Mexican horticultural exports and 94.6% of those of Sinaloa. The statistical data corresponds to volume and value of exports, and they cover the period from 1961 to 2005 in the case of peppers, tomatoes and eggplants; from 1965 to 2005 for cucumbers; and since 1966 for pumpkins. The source is always FAO. The research question is, whether the implementation of NAFTA in January 1994 prompted a remarkable modification in the exports trend, which could be interpreted as statistical structural change. The methodology is the proposed by Vogelsang and applied in Economics by Ben-David and Pappel. The results indicate that only pumpkin exports, in terms value, and eggplant exports, both in value and volume, could suggest some relationship with NAFTA, because their turning points were the years 1996 and 1997 respectively. But even in these cases, NAFTA´s influence appeared two or three years later. This fact weakens the hypothesis that the treaty served to promote the exports of the selected horticultural products.

Palavras-chave : structural change; horticultural trade; Mexico; United States; Sinaloa.