Resumo

ARAGON-NORIEGA, E. Alberto et al. Potential distribution of Geoduck clam Panopea globosa of the Gulf of California in a climate change Model. Acta univ [online]. 2017, vol.27, n.3, pp.28-35. ISSN 2007-9621.  https://doi.org/10.15174/au.2017.1245.

Climate change has broken the natural equilibrium and has modified the state of health of different commercial species such as the geoduck clam. Therefore, the objective of the present study was to predict the distribution of the geoduck clam Panopea globosa of the Gulf of California to the year 2050 using a climate change model. We applied the maximum entropy model (MaxEnt), which considered 12 environmental variables that affect thermal, chemical, and biological distribution. The MaxEnt model predicted the potential habitat suitable for P. globosa with high success rates (Area Under the Curve [AUC] = 0.995). The most favorable habitat of P. globosa is located of Guaymas, Sonora, mainly due to the upwelling of nutrients that promotes the production of chlorophyll-a. In the year 2050, MaxEnt forecasted southward reduction towards the south coast of Sonora, of Santa Rosalía and San Marcos Island in Baja California Sur the presence probability decreased from 0.70 to 0.04. Current clam harvesting sites were observed to have been altered by the social and economic conditions of coastal communities. We conclude that this study is important for fisheries resource management purposes because the fisheries harvesting sites could be affected by climate change.

Palavras-chave : Climate change; environmental variability; Gulf of California; maximum entropy model; fishery; Panopea globosa.