Resumo

PENA, Ricardo de la. An alternative to estimate the polls accuracy. Polít. cult. [online]. 2018, n.49, pp.123-156. ISSN 0188-7742.

The intent of this paper is to present an alternative estimator to measure the accuracy of the polls and some derived estimators, which seeks to cushion problems detected in the available options. This is achieved by adjusting the value of the absolute differences according to the statistical error of the estimates and, to allow a symmetrical behavior of the indicator, to convert it into its logarithm. The expectation is that these estimators provide a useful tool for future analysis on the accuracy of pre-election polls.

Palavras-chave : measurement; precision; accuracy; polls; elections.