Resumo

ALARCO TOSONI, Germán. Escenarios de expansión eléctrica para México 2005-2015 con redistribución del ingreso y emisiones de CO₂. Prob. Des [online]. 2005, vol.36, n.142, pp.145-169. ISSN 0301-7036.

The expansion needs for the Mexican electricity sector are estimated and analyzed using different scenarios of economic growth, including the possibility that the income distribution structure improves. Based on the development of a model, i.e. a macroeconomic aspect inspired by the tradition of M. Kalecki, it is concluded that this improvement in income distribution would imply greater challenges to raise national energy consumption and therefore the needs for expansion of national energy production, avoiding greater imbalances in the sale of these products. At the same time, it would demand the design and implementation of an additional portfolio of policies making it possible to deal with greater emissions of carbon dioxide (CO₂) which could be generated due to the increased level of economic activity and greater energy consumption.

Palavras-chave : CO₂ emissions; electricity sector; medium- and long-term models; projected generation capacity.

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