Resumo

CUEVAS AHUMADA, Víctor M.  e  CHAVEZ GUTIERREZ, Fernando J.. Déficit, deuda y reforma fiscal en México. Prob. Des [online]. 2007, vol.38, n.148, pp.69-97. ISSN 0301-7036.

This paper analyzes, in broad outline, the problematic of the fiscal deficit and public debt in Mexico, as well as the need to carry out a Treasury reform that will strengthen tax collection and broaden the tax base. In this context, it studies the main theoretical currents regarding the effects of the fiscal deficit on the economy, and particularly on such variables as the rate of interest, the exchange rate, economic activity and prices. Afterwards, based on the empirical evidence obtained by estimating a moderate model of vector self-regression, it is concluded that a transitory reduction in the public sector deficit would have the following short-term effects on Mexico's economy: a fall in interest rates, a reduction in inflationary pressures and an appreciation of the peso. Finally, we reflect briefly on the main fundamentals that could be used to orient an integral fiscal reform in our country.

Palavras-chave : fiscal deficit; public debt; inflation; Treasury reform; Mexican economy.