Resumo

PEREZ-VERDIN, Gustavo; MARQUEZ-LINARES, Marco Antonio; CORTES-ORTIZ, Armando  e  SALMERON-MACIAS, Maricela. Spatial-temporal analysis of fire occurrence in Durango, Mexico. Madera bosques [online]. 2013, vol.19, n.2, pp.37-58. ISSN 2448-7597.

Forest fires affect biodiversity, increase emission of greenhouse gasses, and modify hydrological flows. In Mexico, fires are mostly caused by humans and factors like road accessibility, distance to towns, among others are commonly associated with their frequency and distribution. Using a Conafor database collected from 2000 to 2011, a spatial-temporal evaluation of fire occurrence was made in Durango, one of the most affected states in the country. The spatial analysis was performed using a Moran index while the temporal analysis was done through the analysis of stationary and autocorrelation coefficients. A Geographically Weighted Regression was used to determine the most important factors that affect fire size. Results indicate that fires follow an aggregated distribution and are no-stationary temporally. Fire size is strongly influenced by road density and access, which confirms the importance of the anthropogenic factors. Low precipitation and high temperatures are also climatic drivers of fire size. Overall, considering the anthropogenic factor, more support is necessary to increase education and public awareness of fire effects.

Palavras-chave : Autocorrelation; stationarity; Geographically Weighted Regression; property regimes; temperate forests.