Resumo

GOMEZ-TOSCA, Elena G. et al. Current and future potential distribution of Coffea arabica L. in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico. Madera bosques [online]. 2021, vol.27, n.2, e2722070.  Epub 04-Abr-2022. ISSN 2448-7597.  https://doi.org/10.21829/myb.2021.2722070.

Global warming is causing variations in the climate that poses a serious threat to natural systems, and Mexico is particularly exposed to the effects of climate change. In this context, coffee is one of the most susceptible crops to weather variations, as it requires a certain hydrothermal regime for its development. The aim of this work was to model the current and future potential distribution of this crop in the face of different climate change scenarios projected to 2050 and 2070 in the Decozalapa subbasin, Veracruz, Mexico using the Maxlike algorithm, through three general circulation models. An interval of reduction in the potential distribution of the current coffee area (924.5 km2) was determined from 4.74% to 61.67%, an interval of variation of 725 m to 1397 m a.s.l. at the potential minimum altitude and from 2221 m to 2308 m a.s.l. at the maximum potential altitude, and possible temperarure changes between 1.1 °C and 3.5 °C, which means the loss of climate-appropriate areas from 4.74% (43.8 km2) to 61.67% (570.1 km2) and changes in precipitation from -69 mm to 73 mm. These alterations suggest the affectation of the coffee area, including the possible disappearance of suitable environmental conditions in four of the main producing municipalities and the displacement of the crop to higher latitudes. Finally, it is risky to ignore the potential impacts that present and future climate can have on cultivation, so specific adaptation and mitigation measures are required for this crop.

Palavras-chave : climatic change; climatic change scenarios; Maxlike; general circulation models; ecological niche; representative concentration pathways.