Resumo

MONDEJAR-JIMENEZ, José; MONDEJAR-JIMENEZ, J. Antonio  e  VARGAS-VARGAS, Manuel. Economic evolution measurement of the agricultural sector in Castilla-La Mancha using synthetic indicators. Agrociencia [online]. 2009, vol.43, n.3, pp.309-318. ISSN 2521-9766.

The study of the economic evolution of the agricultural sector is important for governments, international organizations and economic agents. Econometric models are the most widely used for contextual analysis, but due to the scarcity of information they are barely applicable in the agricultural sector, so that applying synthetic indicators is an alternative. The objective of this article was to incorporate new formulations based on the aggregation of indicators in state spaces so as to have a statistical tool that allows the evaluation of economic activity in the sector. The use of a new methodology of indicator aggregation (state spaces), as well as the classical methods, allow obtaining a valid indicator for predicting fluctuations in the sector with the information available. In addition, the methodology in state spaces can make a correct prediction and anticipate the behavior of the sector for several periods.

Palavras-chave : State spaces; synthetic indicators; agricultural sector.