Resumo

GUAJARDO-PANES, Rafael A. et al. Maize (Zea mays L.) yields under climate change scenarios in the region of La Antigua, Veracruz, Mexico. Agrociencia [online]. 2018, vol.52, n.5, pp.725-739. ISSN 2521-9766.

Climate change will modify the production and distribution of plant species, which is why implementing adaptation plans to minimize its effects, as well as to reduce impacts on food security, should be considered. This study assessed the variation of maize (Zea mayz L.) yields under rainfed conditions under climate change scenarios, for the spring-summer cycle in the period of 2011 to 2030, in the Rural Development District of La Antigua, Veracruz, Mexico. The possible variations in maize production concerning current climate conditions were analyzed in areas with favorable conditions for the development of this crop. The logical-spatial coherence and homogeneity were verified with daily records of precipitation and temperature from 40 climatological stations of the National Meteorological Service. Missing data were estimated with ClimGen, climate series were generated with Lars WG, crop yields were evaluated for scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 using a water balance simulation model (SICTOD), and the potentially vulnerable zones were defined through spatial interpolation of yields. Maize yields in the RDD La Antigua for each climate change scenario were different from the present ones (p = 0.666); in the spatial scope, they could affect 7 % of the surface with conditions for maize production under scenario B1. Under the scenarios A1B and A2, 94 % of the surfaces with conditions for maize production would be affected. Yields can be maintained, but they could come to vary in space. The information can be used to develop projects of climate change adaptation, with the participation of agricultural producers, climate change managers, or others, with actions like crop substitution and new varieties, and to reprogram agricultural tasks.

Palavras-chave : yields; agricultural risk; climate change; maize; Rural Development District La Antigua.