Resumo

RUIZ-ANGULO, Angel  e  LOPEZ-ESPINOZA, Erika Danaé. Estimation of the termal response of the Mexico Valley lacustrine basin in the 16th century: A numerical experiment. Bol. Soc. Geol. Mex [online]. 2015, vol.67, n.2, pp.215-225. ISSN 1405-3322.

This manuscript presents a numerical study of the thermal response for the months of January-February and August-September in a scenario that includes a water body representing the lake system of the Basin of Mexico excluding the urban coverage. The numerical experiment aims to replicate the set of lakes that formed the lacustrine system 500 years ago. Numerical simulations were performed with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) considering a scenario with the current land usage conditions and one with the synthetic lacustrine system, both scenarios using initial and boundary conditions from 2012. The surface temperature from both simulations and eight meteorological stations located in the Valley of Mexico were compared. The results show a significant thermal impact on the weather generated by the presence of the lake. Regionally, an increment on the surface temperature was observed associated with two simultaneous processes: the extinction of the lacustrine system and the urban growth. In addition to the amplitude, a shift on the maximum temperature time is observed associated with changes in heat fluxes. The average increase in temperature becomes higher than that associated with global climate change over the same period of time.

Palavras-chave : urban microclimate; numerical simulation; weather; basin of Mexico; surface temperature.