Resumo

VIKTOROVNA-BLINOVA, Tatiana  e  GENNADIEVNA-BYLINA, Svetlana. Alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia: analysis and forecast. Pap. poblac [online]. 2021, vol.27, n.108, pp.11-32.  Epub 06-Dez-2021. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2021.108.11.

The purpose of the study is to discuss the alternative scenarios of the demographic development of rural Russia. The Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic has changed the demographic situation in Russia: mortality and natural population decline increased, while the birth rate decreased. Based on the cohort-component method, we projected the rural population size and age structure for the period 2024-2049. Six alternative scenarios were developed: three with zero migration (without taking into account the impact of migration changes on the rural population) and three with migration. Therefore, the migration outflow coefficient was included in the three forecasting scenarios. However, the inflow of some urban population to the countryside is not ruled out. The results show that the population of rural Russia will decrease from 37.3 million (2019) to 29.6-33.1 million people (2049). The age structure of the population will change, the demographic aging of rural areas will continue.

Palavras-chave : Population; Forecast; Scenarios; Rural Russia.