Resumo

VELAZQUEZ-ZAPATA, Juan Alberto; TROIN, Magali  e  DAVILA-ORTIZ, Rodrigo. Evaluation of the climate change impact on hydrological indicators over a central Mexican basin based on an ensemble of climate models and SWAT. Ing. invest. y tecnol. [online]. 2017, vol.18, n.3, pp.341-351. ISSN 2594-0732.

This study assesses the influence of Global Climate Models (GCMs) in the evaluation of climate change impacts on water resources over a central Mexican catchment. The climate simulations came from five CMIP3 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) models under the A2 emission scenario. The climate simulations were used to feed the SWAT hydrological model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) for the reference (1971-2000) and future (2046-2065) periods. The analysis of the projected climate changes over the central Mexican catchment shows that all the GCMs estimate an increase in annual maximum temperature between 2.12°C and 3.05°C for the 2046-2065 period. The projected changes in mean annual precipitation are more contrasted, with values between -19% and +15%. The results of the climate change signal on hydrological indicators show considerable differences of the magnitude in streamflow changes between the five GCMs. For example, the projected changes in mean monthly streamflow by the GCMs are expected to vary between -30% to +4% for the 2050 horizon. Our study emphasises that the GCMs lead to a high level of variability on both the direction and magnitude of the climate change impacts on hydrological indicators at the catchment scale.

Palavras-chave : GCMs; SWAT; climate change impact; Mexico.

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