Resumo

GARCIA FLORES, Brenda Karina  e  VILALTA Y PERDOMO, Carlos Javier. Factors that Increase the Probability of Success of Federal Tax Initiatives in Mexico, 1997-2009. Polít. gob [online]. 2014, vol.21, n.2, pp.253-289. ISSN 1665-2037.

How the tax policy is designed in the Legislative power is a rarely studied issue. Based on a systematic empirical analysis of the set of fiscal bills that were submitted between 1997 and 2009, we find that political-electoral factors are the best predictors of success of a fiscal bill. We also find that it is in the phase of revision in committees where these political-electoral factors work best. Interestingly, the Senate as a revising chamber does not use regularly its veto power but rather introduces modifications in the bills. While the institutional factors do not predict the proclivity of success at the stage of revision in committees, they do in the phase of approval of the bill in the floor. Institutional, as well as politico-electoral and economic factors, raise significantly the likelihood of success of fiscal bills in the Senate.

Palavras-chave : legislative studies; fiscal bills; tax policy; Mexico.