Resumo

CRUZ, Moritz. Liberalización financiera y el sentimiento del mercado: el caso de la economía mexicana. EconoQuantum [online]. 2009, vol.5, n.2, pp.23-45. ISSN 2007-9869.

Given perfect mobility of capital, it has been argued that financial crises are triggered by swift changes of investors' confidence due to changes on the so-called fundamentals. This implies that once a government financially liberalizes its economy, it constraints its policy autonomy in an ex-post and ex-ante sense because its primary aim is to attract capital and avoid a sudden flight; that is, it aims at exclusively keeping investors' confidence. Applying a Markov switching autoregressive two regime model and using the M2 to international reserves ratio as the variable capable of modeling the changes on investors' confidence, this paper sheds light on these aspects, identifying the beginning and the end (the timing) of the 1994-95 Mexican financial crisis. The estimated probabilities indicate that the financial panic started on November of 1994 and ended in August of 1995.

Palavras-chave : liberalización financiera; sentimiento del mercado; crisis financieras.