Resumo

RODRIGUEZ MORENO, Víctor Manuel et al. Expected changes in land use in Mexico, according to the climate change scenario A1F1. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2017, vol.8, n.spe19, pp.3979-3992. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v0i19.667.

Embedded in a robust scheme for spatial data analysis and using the climate change scenario A1F1year 2050 as a condition of border, were generated and interpreted the response surfaces of semivariograms of six indices of humidity (rain), the annual range of temperature, and the indices of salinity and soil compaction. Were obtained evidence of regional effects contrary to what is described by the global climate change with regard to the non-presence of extreme events of rain, but consistent in temperature increase. The influence on the expression of the climate with reference to the proximity of the coast line was outlined. It was found that the open arid and semi-arid ecosystems as the most vulnerable to stated conditions, with the consequent fragmentation of the same and a likely increase in the space frontier, disappearing some species with less capacity of adaptation and new to the biotic communities.

Palavras-chave : covariables; kriging; seguridad alimentaria; semivariograma.