Resumo

PALOMEQUE DE LA CRUZ, Miguel Ángel et al. Modeling of changes in cover and land use in Nacajuca, Tabasco. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2021, vol.12, n.4, pp.655-669.  Epub 21-Fev-2022. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v12i4.2622.

The urban growth of Nacajuca, Tabasco, has transformed the natural system, being necessary to know the current spatial configuration of natural covers and artificial uses in order to provide information on spatial dynamics for ecological planning. The objective of the study was to model changes in covers and land use (2000, 2008 and 2017), through a multitemporal analysis using the Land Change Modeler for ecological sustainability of IDRISI. The results indicate that in the period 2000-2008, there was a decrease in wetlands (1 796 ha) and a slight increase in tree vegetation (689 ha), contrary to urban growth (796 ha) and a large increase in grassland (2 168 ha). In the second period (2008-2017), the greatest loss of wetlands (3 995 ha) and tree vegetation (1 233 ha) was detected, while the urban area and grassland had the greatest increases (1 365 and 4 378 ha). The main transitions were first, the change from large wetland covers to grassland and secondly the transformation from grassland to urban area. The disturbance relates to the dynamics of the metropolitan area of Villahermosa and coincides with the loss of large wetland areas in the areas analyzed. In view of this, the alternatives to reduce the effects of land use change are the elaboration of the territorial ecological planning and the urban development program in which the use of Geographic Information Systems, environmental remote sensing and the implementation of geomatic models for spatial analysis are involved.

Palavras-chave : environmental disturbance; geographic information systems; land use change modeler; territorial ecological planning.