Resumo

LOPEZ-GARCIA, María del Rosario; MARTINEZ-DAMIAN, Miguel Ángel  e  ARANA-CORONADO, José Jaime. Predictors of the price of white corn in Jalisco and Michoacán. Rev. Mex. Cienc. Agríc [online]. 2022, vol.13, n.2, pp.261-272.  Epub 01-Ago-2022. ISSN 2007-0934.  https://doi.org/10.29312/remexca.v13i2.2740.

Corn is one of the most important products in the world due to its nutritional qualities related to human, animal consumption and industrial use. A predictor of corn price behavior is useful for producers and marketers in making decisions. A price indicator is provided in international stock exchanges; however, in Mexico there is no stock exchange that provides an adequate signal about the future behavior of white corn prices in Mexico. In this research, an analysis of white corn prices in Michoacán and Jalisco was carried out, using autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models with the aim of providing a predictor of white corn prices. Two models were built for each series and point estimates were made. The predictive capacity of the models was evaluated using the mean absolute percentage error, the root-mean-square error and Theil’s U. The results showed that the price of corn in Michoacán and Jalisco can be predicted by its past values with an AR (1) model and an MA (2) model. It was concluded that these models provide a predictor for corn prices and constitute a useful tool in planning and making decisions regarding the process of production, commercialization and related products.

Palavras-chave : arima; forecast; series.