Resumo

DURAN PUGA, Noé et al. Impact of climate change on the potential distribution of Tithonia diversifolia (Hemsl.) A. Gray in Mexico. Rev. mex. de cienc. pecuarias [online]. 2020, vol.11, suppl.2, pp.93-106.  Epub 30-Jun-2020. ISSN 2448-6698.  https://doi.org/10.22319/rmcp.v11s2.4705.

The aim of this study was to estimate the possible impact of future climate changes on the potential distribution of T. diversifolia in Mexico. Distribution niches were modelled with MaxEnt for the 1951-2000, 2041-2060 and 2061-2080 climatologies, considering 20 bioclimatic and two topographical variables. For future climates, a HadGEM2-ES general circulation model (GCM) was considered, with two representative concentration pathways of greenhouse gases (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This information was obtained from the Global Climate Data Website WorldClim and processed with the Idrisi Selva system as raster images with 2.5 arc min resolution. The environmental variables that contributed the most to explain the geographical distribution of T. diversifolia were the May-October mean accumulated precipitation (pa5-10) and the mean maximum temperature of the warmest month (MMAX). The 10th percentile training presence logistic threshold reported a predicted suitable area (for the reference climatology) accounting for 30.71 % of the extent of Mexico. Niche modeling under climate change scenarios reported expansion as well as retraction areas for environmental suitability; however, after computing them, suitable areas are expected to present a small increment with respect to the climate reference period, 1950-2000: 31.62 %, 31.83 %, 32.45 % and 32.45 % of Mexican territory in scenarios for 2041-2060 in RCP 8.5, 2041-2060 in RCP 4.5, 2061-2080 in RCP 4.5 and 2061-2080 in RCP 8.5, respectively. Thus, climate change would bring more benefits than constrains for T. diversifolia dispersion.

Palavras-chave : Climate change; Tithonia diversifolia; Ecological descriptors; Niche distribution.