Resumo

IBARRA MONTOYA, José Luis  e  HUERTA MARTINEZ, Francisco Martín. Climate change and prediction of fires for the year 2050 at the La Primavera Forest, Jalisco. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2016, vol.7, n.37, pp.39-50. ISSN 2007-1132.

During the last two decades, forest fires have increased in frequency and intensity in various parts of the world. The main causes of these patterns are associated both with land-use activities and with climate change. The La Primavera Forest is a highly important natural reserve due to its proximity to the city of Guadalajara; therefore, the prediction of fires is of great interest, as the frequency and intensity of forest fires are a major cause of deterioration of the area. The objective of this work was to build a spatial model in order to generate a fire prediction scenario for the year 2050 in the La Primavera Forest, for which purpose the data of climate projections for western Mexico and the historical occurrences of fires in the last few years were taken as a reference. The model predicts a fire zone that covers the protected area almost in its entirety. The most prominent effect of climate change in the area is associated to the reduction of precipitations and to an increase in the temperature, which results in an increase of the surface area affected by the fires. Under this scenario, the main challenge would be to aptly define the mitigation policies and strategies for promoting a healthier La Primavera Forest in terms of conservation, productivity, diversity and resilience, which will ensure the ongoing provision of ecosystemic services under a changing climate.

Palavras-chave : Environmental degradation; future scenarios; MaxEnt; Spatial model; GIS; land use.