Resumo

MUNOZ, Enrique; GUTIERREZ-VEJAR, Juan C.  e  TUME-ZAPATA, Pedro I.. Uncertainty in the outputs of a semi-distributed hydrological model. Tecnol. cienc. agua [online]. 2018, vol.9, n.2, pp.150-174.  Epub 24-Nov-2020. ISSN 2007-2422.  https://doi.org/10.24850/j-tyca-2018-02-06.

For proper water management, it is necessary to know both the flows simulated by a model and the uncertainty associated with them. This study seeks to quantify the uncertainty in the flows simulated by a hydrological model and its propagation downstream caused by uncertainties in rainfall, in order to recommend potential improvements in the model results. A conceptual model was calibrated and the uncertainty associated with the model structure and parameters was quantified. Then the uncertainty associated with a percentage change in rainfall during different periods of the year was calculated. As a result, the propagation of uncertainty downstream was found to be negligible due to the increase in the magnitude of the simulated flows and because the uncertainty in model outputs depends on the uncertainty in precipitation only in winter.

Palavras-chave : Uncertainty; hydrologic modeling; surface hydrology.

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