Resumo

MONTERROSO-RIVAS, Alejandro I.; GOMEZ-DIAZ, Jesús D.  e  TINOCO-RUEDA, Juan A.. Cloud forest and climate change scenarios: an assessment in Hidalgo, México. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2013, vol.19, n.1, pp.29-43. ISSN 2007-4018.  https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2012.03.029.

The habitat of eight forest species (Liquidambar macrophylla, Alnus arguta, Carpinus caroliniana, Clethra mexicana, Pinus patula, Nectandra sanguínea, Podocarpus reichei and Quercus spp.) representative of cloud forest in the state of Hidalgo was assessed under current and projected climate conditions. We used the ecological niche conceptual framework and considered twelve variables: one related to topography, five to landscape and six to climate. An ecological niche factorial analysis was carried out with Biomapper software. Habitat suitability maps were obtained for each forest species by changing six climatic variables for each climate change model applied, generating the same number of maps for future conditions. We analyzed the differences in suitable habitat for current conditions and those projected by climate change, finding that the optimal growth area for six species may be reduced. The species identified as threatened by climate change are L. macrophylla, A. arguta, C. caroliniana, C. mexicana, P. patula, and N. sanguinea, which comprise mainly the high tree layer of the cloud forest. We therefore conclude that the ecosystem can be seriously affected by climate change.

Palavras-chave : Fog forest; niche; impact; vulnerability.