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Revista Chapingo serie ciencias forestales y del ambiente
versão On-line ISSN 2007-4018versão impressa ISSN 2007-3828
Resumo
MANZANILLA-QUINONES, Ulises; MARTINEZ-ADRIANO, Cristian A. e AGUIRRE-CALDERON, Óscar A.. Historical and current spatial modeling of the sacred fir (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.) in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt. Rev. Chapingo ser. cienc. for. ambient [online]. 2019, vol.25, n.2, pp.201-217. Epub 19-Fev-2021. ISSN 2007-4018. https://doi.org/10.5154/r.rchscfa.2018.10.076.
Introduction:
Climatic conditions in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt during the middle Holocene were different from today's conditions, which may have an effect on the historical distribution areas of the sacred fir (Abies religiosa [Kunth] Schltdl. & Cham.).
Objective:
To determine whether the environmental requirements that delimit the current distribution of the sacred fir in the Trans-Mexican Volcanic Belt have changed since 6 000 years ago.
Materials and methods:
A. religiosa records were obtained from the Niche Toolbox platform. The WorldClim version 2.0 variables for the current (1970-2000) and middle Holocene (CNRMCM5 and MIROC_ESM models) periods were downloaded. The distribution models were generated in MaxEnt using 75 % of the data for training and 25 % for validation. The most important variables of each period were determined with the Jackknife test.
Results and discussion:
The estimated sacred fir areas were similar in both periods. Approximately 86.5 % of the sacred fir distribution is found in protected natural areas of the zone. The limiting environmental variables of its distribution are: elevation, annual precipitation, summer precipitation, annual mean temperature and diurnal temperature oscillation. Nevado de Toluca and Mexico City had larger sacred fir areas (+2 658.4 ha and +20 129.7 ha, respectively) during the Middle Holocene. Annual precipitation was 80 to 224 mm higher than the current level and the temperature was 1 °C colder.
Conclusion:
The most important environmental variables for sacred fir distribution are similar to those reported in the literature, indicating similarity between the current and historical ecological niche of A. religiosa.
Palavras-chave : Ecological niche; environmental variables; fir; Middle Holocene; potential distribution.