Introduction:

The Mexican spotted owl (Strix occidentalis lucida Nelson 1903) is a subspecies threatened by habitat destruction and sensitive to climate change. It is distributed in the old forests of the United States and Mexico.

Objective:

To determine the potential historical (1970-2000) and future (2021-2040, 2041-2060 y 2061-2080) distribution of the Mexican spotted owl under two climate change scenarios (SSP 245 and SSP 585).

Materials and methods:

Potential distribution was modeled using the R software with the MaxEnt algorithm, 155 geographically uncorrelated occurrence records, and five bioclimatic layers. Areas of environmental suitability were predicted for eight environmental management units in the United States and Mexico.

Results and discussion:

Three temperature variables contributed 93.1 % to the model prediction: mean diurnal range (44.8 %), maximum temperature of the warmest month (28.8 %) and average of the coldest quarter (19.5 %). Future scenarios showed gradual and continuous losses of suitable bioclimatic space for the bird in seven management units, especially in the high emissions scenario (SSP 585) in the Sierra Madre Oriental de México (-56.1 to -96.4 %). The Southern Rocky Mountains environmental management unit in the United States was the only one that gained suitable bioclimatic space (51.3 to 167.2 %) in all periods.

Conclusion:

Although changes are not significant, the loss of areas of bioclimatic suitability begins in 2030 and increases in 2041 and, therefore, climate change represents a current threat to this bird of prey.