Introduction:

Changes in climate patterns threaten water security of the population and its economic activities.

Objective:

To model and analyze the behavior of surface runoff in the Yaqui river basin under climate change scenarios.

Methodology:

Representative concentration pathways (RCP) of three sub-basins (La Angostura, El Novillo and El Oviachic) were shown using hydrologic modeling with SWAT, where the simulated variable was surface runoff.

Results:

A change in water availability of -67 % is expected in La Angostura for the period 2021-2040 (RCP2.6) and an increase of 60 % from 2041-2060 (RCP8.5), in El Novillo a decrease of 65 % is predicted for the period 2061-2080 (RCP4. 5) and a 42 % increase from 2061-2080 (RCP2.6), and in El Oviachic a 63 % decrease is predicted for the period 2041-2060 (RCP2.6 and 4.5) and a 47 % increase from 2041-2060 (RCP4.5).

Limitations:

Veracity and impact of basins studies depend on quality hydro-climatic information of unrestricted availability.

Originality:

The impact of climate change on the availability of water for agricultural use in the Yaqui River basin was projected. In addition, there is a technological platform for planning processes.

Conclusions:

The data collected can be used to generate adaptation and mitigation strategies for efficient water use in the basin and to propose long-term sustainable management alternatives.