Resumo

PALMA-ORDAZ, Sara  e  DELGADILLO-RODRIGUEZ, José. Potential distribution to eight alien species with invasive nature in the state of Baja California, Mexico. Bot. sci [online]. 2014, vol.92, n.4, pp.587-597. ISSN 2007-4476.

The potential distribution was determined for eight exotic species which are invasive in Baja California (Atriplex semibaccata, Brassica tournefortii, Bromus rubens, Centaurea melitensis, Cynodon dactylon, Salsola tragus, Schismus barbatus, and Tamarix ramosissima) with MaxEnt modeling program. To do this we used 19 climate variables and the known distribution of the species obtained from herbarium records. All models were evaluated to test their predictive ability and analyzed the most important climate variables in the predictive model for each species. The coastal region of the northwest (Mediterranean area) was identified as the area of the highest probability of occurrence for the species studied. This may be because it is a region where historically the floristic exchange (mainly from the European Mediterranean region) has been more intensive and where anthropogenic activity is greater. Probably, these species have also had a better adaptation to the climatic conditions of this area and some extending their distribution to more arid areas (desert) of the state. This is the first study done in Baja California considering exotic species and their invasive potential distribution by models. These models, defined with the current information available, can assist in determining the most important concentration sites of these species.

Palavras-chave : climatic variables; exotic plants; invasive plants; MaxEnt; potential distribution.