Resumo

VAZQUEZ-OCHOA, Luis Antonio et al. Hydrological model, water quality and climate change: support for the integral management of the Soto la Marina river watershed. CienciaUAT [online]. 2021, vol.16, n.1, pp.20-41.  Epub 13-Dez-2021. ISSN 2007-7858.  https://doi.org/10.29059/cienciauat.v16i1.1498.

The management of water resources is a priority on the agenda of the United Nations. Three vectors are essential, quantity, quality, and climate change scenarios in water resources. In the central region of Tamaulipas, México, the fluvial network of the Soto la Marina river watershed stands out, with the Corona, Purificación and Pilón rivers as the main tributaries. In this region there are significant volumes of wastewater and other discharges that put the conditions of the water system at risk, particularly of the Vicente Guerrero dam. The objective of this work was to develop a hydrological model of water availability and quality of the Soto la Marina river watershed (CRSLM) that considers climate change through the regionalization of two global circulation models, which are the closest to the latitude in which the watershed is located (GFDL-CM3 and HAGDGEM2-ES), using two representative concentration routes (RCP): 4.5 and 8.5 with projection to the year 2100, with the purpose of analyzing the watershed behavior, in order to simulate water vulnerability. The quality of the spatial-temporal system was evaluated: floods and droughts, by determining the biochemical oxygen demand, chemical oxygen and dissolved oxygen demand, as well as temperature, in 15 sites of the Soto la Marina river watershed, with modeling of the abatement of dissolved oxygen. Vectors for hydrology, monitoring and water quality were developed. The concentrations of the measured pollutants showed an increase in the Vicente Guerrero dam, although their seasonal behavior was more sensitive in low water levels than in floods. In the simulations with the WEAP built model with climate change scenarios, more conservative results were predicted in the dry season than in the rainfall season, with the RCP 4.5 W / m2 for the GFDLCM3 model being the most adverse projection.

Palavras-chave : WEAP; hidrology; water quality; climate change; modeling.

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