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Cirugía y cirujanos
versão On-line ISSN 2444-054Xversão impressa ISSN 0009-7411
Resumo
CASTANON-GONZALEZ, Jorge A.; POLANCO-GONZALEZ, Carlos; GONZALEZ-GONZALEZ, Ricardo e CARRILLO-RUIZ, José D.. Surveillance system for acute severe infections with epidemic potential based on a deterministic-stochastic model, the StochCum Method. Cir. cir. [online]. 2021, vol.89, n.4, pp.503-519. Epub 03-Nov-2021. ISSN 2444-054X. https://doi.org/10.24875/ciru.20000725.
Background:
The dynamic interactions of severe infectious diseases with epidemic potential and their hosts are complex. Therefore, it remains uncertain if a sporadic zoonosis restricted to a certain area will become a global pandemic or something in between.
Objective:
The objective of the study was to present a surveillance system for acute severe infections with epidemic potential based on a deterministic-stochastic model, the StochCum Method.
Design:
The StochCum Method is founded on clinical, administrative, and sociodemographic variables that provide a space/time map as a preventive warning of possible outbreaks of severe infections that can be complemented based on the sum of all the first accumulated cases. If the outbreak is happening in high-risk areas, an early warning can be elicited to activate the health response system and save time while waiting for the confirmation of symptomatic cases.
Results:
The surveillance system was tested virtually for 1 month on admissions to the Emergency Room of a public hospital located in Mexico City, Mexico. It promptly identified simulated cases of acute respiratory infections with epidemic potential.
Conclusions:
The StochCum method proved to be a practical and useful system for conducting epidemic surveillance on a hospital network.
Palavras-chave : Epidemic potential; Severe infections; Deterministic-stochastic epidemiological warning systems.