Resumo

JARAMILLO VILLANUEVA, José Luis  e  SARKER, Rakhal. Los movimientos en el tipo de cambio y el comercio de leche en polvo entre México y los Estados Unidos. Un análisis de cointegración. El trimestre econ [online]. 2010, vol.77, n.305, pp.219-246. ISSN 2448-718X.

Many analysts argue that the substantial growth in agri-food trade between Mexico and the United States can be attributed to changes in exchange rate, exchange rate volatility and NAFTA. This paper quantifies the effects of the changes in Mexico-United States real exchange rate, its volatility and NAFTA on Mexico-United States flows of milk powder and contributes, with empirical evidence, to the debate on the effects of real exchange rate changes and its volatility on agri-food trade flows. Maximum Likelihood Cointegration Analysis and a Vector Error Correction (VEC) approach are used in estimating an import demand function for milk powder in Mexico. To guide the empirical analysis, an expected utility maximization model is developed in this study and a set of reduced form equations are estimated. The results show that while changes in real exchange rate have a positive effect on milk pow der imports in Mexico from the United States, volatility of the real exchange rate has a negative effect on imports, both in the short-run and in the long-run. The NAFTA has no significant effect on milk powder imports in Mexico from the United States.

Palavras-chave : tipo de cambio real; modificaciones en el tipo de cambio; volatibilidad; comercio agrícola; análisis de cointegración.

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