Resumo

JOHNSON, Christian A.. Producción potencial y brecha de producción en Centroamérica, Panamá y la República Dominicana (CAPRD). El trimestre econ [online]. 2015, vol.82, n.325, pp.5-50. ISSN 2448-718X.

Potential Output is a key factor for debt sustainability analysis and for developing strategies for growth, but unfortunately it is an unobservable variable. Using three methodologies (production function, switching, and state-space), this paper computes potential output for CAPDR countries using annual data. Main findings are: i) CAPDR potential growth is about 4.4% while output gap volatility is about 1.9%; ii) the highest-potential growth country is Panama (6.5 percent) while the lowest-growth country is El Salvador (2.6 percent); iii) CAPDR business cycle is about eight years.

Palavras-chave : crecimiento potencial; brecha de producción; descomposición del crecimiento; cambio de régimen; modelo estado-espacio.

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