Resumo

GERMAN-SOTO, Vicente  e  ESCOBEDO SAGAZ, José Luis. Identificación de cambios estructurales en el flujo histórico de agua del Río Bravo en El Paso y Fort Quitman. Estud. front [online]. 2012, vol.13, n.26, pp.109-139. ISSN 2395-9134.

We analyze the surface water flow of Rio Grande between El Paso-Ciudad Juarez and Fort Quitman and estimate the structural changes occurred during 1923-2005. The study is based on a set of econometric equations to examine trends and turning points in data of time series. We find that water flow registered two important structural changes estimated in 1950 and 1972. There was a reduction in the water flow after the first structural change that is linked to the 1944 Treaty; whilethe second structural change is associated toincreases of the water flowthat seem to respond to the observation of the American flower and fauna law. In conclusion, the lower Rio Grande located between Ciudad-Juarez and Fort Quitman has received a minorwater flow from 1950.

Palavras-chave : water; structural change; Rio Grande; time series.