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JEL Classification: F31, F32.
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Investigación económica
versão impressa ISSN 0185-1667
Inv. Econ vol.63 no.250 Ciudad de México Out./Dez. 2004
Artículos
Capital Flows, Exchange Rate Regime, and Macroeconomic Performance in Mexico
Flujos de capital, régimen de tipo de cambio y desempeño macroeconómico en México
* Departamento de Economía, Universidad de las Américas, Puebla, Cholula, Pue., México, <carlos.ibarra@udlap.mx>.
This paper analyzes the short-term effects of foreign capital flows on aggregate demand in Mexico: their magnitude, transmission channels, and the possible influence of the country's choice of exchange rate regime. The study is motivated by the introduction of a floating system in December of 1994, in a context of renewed volatility of international capital flows. During the band period, in the early 1990s, capital flows different from foreign direct investment (FDI) had a strong effect on both consumption and investment demand. The real exchange rate and stock market prices were important transmission channels. After the adoption of the floating system, the link with consumption has persisted; the effect of capital flows on domestic investment, in contrast, has tended to disappear. The findings of the paper are consistent with the idea that the insulation of investment from the vagaries of capital flows is partly explained by an observed reduction in the correlation of the real exchange rate and the stock market price index with capital flows.
Este trabajo analiza los efectos a corto plazo de los flujos de capital externo en la demanda agregada en México: su magnitud, los canales de transmisión y la posible influencia en la elección del régimen del tipo de cambio del país. Para motivar este trabajo en la introducción se discute el sistema de flotación en diciembre de 1994, en un contexto de renovada volatilidad de los flujos de capital internacionales. Durante el período de la banda, a principios de los noventa, los flujos de capital diferentes de la inversión extranjera directa (IED) tenían un fuerte efecto en el consumo y en la demanda de inversión. El tipo de cambio real y los choques de los precios de las acciones fueron importantes canales de transmisión. Después de la adopción del sistema de flotación, el vínculo con el consumo ha persistido; el efecto de los flujos de capital en la inversión doméstica, en contraste, ha tendido a desaparecer. Los resultados de este trabajo son consistentes con la idea de que el aislamiento de la inversión respecto de la volatilidad de los flujos de capital se explica particularmente por una reducción en la correlación del tipo de cambio real y el índice de precios de las acciones, con los flujos de capital.
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Received: November 2003; Accepted: April 2004
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