Resumo

GUERRERO DE LIZARDI, Carlos. Determinants of the Economic Growth in Mexico, 1929-2003: A Post-Keynesian Perspective. Inv. Econ [online]. 2006, vol.65, n.255, pp.127-158. ISSN 0185-1667.

Using a post-Keynesian approach, the paper analyzes the economic growth in the Mexican economy during the period 1929-2003. Our first model emphasizes the role of the ratio of exports/imports income elasticities and the performance of the rest of the world economy, and the second one the relevance of price elasticities, terms of trade, and capital flows. The paper focuses on econometric estimates of involved parameters. Basic results suggest the following. In first place, during the analyzed period and selected subperiods actual growth rates were repeatedly lower than those consistent with a balanced current account. As a consequence, it is expected that the proportion between Mexican and United States economic growth rate will reduce during the next few years. In second place, Mexican economy validates the Marshall-Lerner condition. According our second specification, this evidence implies that there is a positive effect of real exchange rate on Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Finally, starting in 1996 we found a reduce, but positive, impact of capital inflows on the Mexican economy.

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