Resumo

POMPA-GARCIA, Marín; VAZQUEZ-VAZQUEZ, Lemir; ZAPATA-MOLINA, Maico  e  SOLIS-MORENO, Raúl. Conceptual model of wildfires in Durango: preliminary progress. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2012, vol.3, n.13, pp.95-106. ISSN 2007-1132.

Nowadays, detecting and tracking down wildfires has been relatively simplified. However, predicting their occurrence in spatial and temporary scales is still an unfinished task. Wildfires cause great damages to Durango's ecosystems. To study their vulnerability to fire is of great importance. The aim of this study was to generate a conceptual model of potential forest fires in Durango. This model was constructed by using geo-statistical techniques based on physical, ecological, and anthropogenic variables, associated with spatial patterns of recurrence of burned patches. For the fitted model, results indicate that the explanatory variables are closely related to the dependent variable, successfully explaining fire susceptibility in each cartography unit of study area. In addition, we use an available Internet platform that enables dynamic modeling for any geographic area of the state, through the inclusion of predictive variables from the user. This simulation allows the generation of probable, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, depending on the specific weight of those user-defined variables. It is concluded that the conceptual model generated is a useful tool for determining the vulnerability of fires by their integration from the above components, constituting a cutting edge technological contribution in fire modeling.

Palavras-chave : Durango; fire; GWR; hazard; regression; risk.