Resumo

PEREZ MIRANDA, Ramiro; MORENO SANCHEZ, Francisco; GONZALEZ HERNANDEZ, Antonio  e  ARRIOLA PADILLA, Víctor Javier. Distribution of Abies religiosa (Kunth) Schltdl. et. Cham. and Pinus montezumae Lamb. in the face of climate change. Rev. mex. de cienc. forestales [online]. 2014, vol.5, n.25, pp.18-33. ISSN 2007-1132.

Possible changes in the landscape are presented as effect of climate change; for that aptitude levels were determined terrain for religious forest species Abies (fir) and Pinus montezumae (white ocote) through two patterns of variation: 2.0 and GFDL HADGEM with scenarios: A2 and B2, for 2030 and 2050 in the State of Mexico. For most surface fir aptitude was obtained with 2.0 to 2030 GFDL A2 (with upper and middle of 1 220 and 1 687 has more than similar), while for HADGEM was in B2 (789 and 1 395 ha); in the case of white ocote greater extension was generated with GFDL 2.0 for 2030, A2 (HADGEM greater than 740 and 9 689 ha), similar to situation. B2 (upper and middle HADGEM higher than in 8 242 and 454 ha, respectively). The high ability of these species to these scenarios will be reduced to small areas located north of the state, and scarcely in the Sierra Nevada, as a result of the reduced capacity of the ground; in contrast, there will be wide median surface potential but limited rainfall, temperature and soil depth.

Palavras-chave : Abies religiosa (Kunth.) Schltdl. et Cham.; suitability soil; climate change; A2 and B2 scenarios; Pinus montezumae Lamb.; potential areas.