Resumo

CONDE GAXIOLA, Napoleón. Analysis of the international tourist arrivals to Mexico. Investig. adm. [online]. 2013, vol.42, n.111, pp.20-34. ISSN 2448-7678.

It is an analysis of forecasting international tourism demand in Mexico between 2013 and 2018, pointing out the inconsistencies of the current mexican tourism model and the need to overcome it. The method used was the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA), whose effectiveness has been demonstrated in his leadership as essential tool of economic analysis and turismologic in the last forty years. The study demonstrates the low vitality and lack of dynamism of mexican tourism policy, noting its inefficiency and inability to compete over other markets, which is demonstrated in a quantitative and qualitative way. Also points out the exhausted tourist proposals of the mexican state central actors to account for the new reality of the problem of international travel and hospitality.

Palavras-chave : tourism demand; forecasting; ARIMA; travel and hospitality.

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