Resumo

MENDOZA-COTA, Jorge Eduardo. Characteristics and determinants of recent changes in migration flows of Mexican workers toward the United States. Pap. poblac [online]. 2012, vol.18, n.71, pp.51-86. ISSN 2448-7147.

The paper calculates migration and return migration of Mexican workers to and from the U.S. for the 2006-2011 period, based on the National Survey of Occupation and Employment (ENOE). Additionally, a probabilistic model was estimated to establish the economic determinants of Mexican migration flows. The results showed a slowing down of both migration and return migration of Mexican workers, with a brief increase in return migration in 2009. The econometric model exhibited positive coefficients for the US GDP and the Mexican unemployment rate in respect to Mexican migration. Finally, the coefficient related to an increase in the Border Patrol staff was negatively correlated with the Mexican migration flows.

Palavras-chave : migration; return migration; unemployment; economic migration; recession.