Resumo

GONZALEZ-ROSAS, Javier. Is the decrease of the fertility at Mexico effect of the 1974 Population Policy? An answer based on the Bounded Stable Theory. Pap. poblac [online]. 2022, vol.28, n.112, pp.59-88.  Epub 31-Mar-2023. ISSN 2448-7147.  https://doi.org/10.22185/24487147.2022.112.12.

Nowadays, 48 years after 1974 Population Act, many experts think the reduction of the fertility is a great success. However, success cannot be attributed totally to the Act, because data of the National Population Council indicate that 13 years before its decree, fertility already had started to decrease, this indicates that before Act, something happened that it did the fertility decrease, and so, the following questions arise: Did the Act of the 74 have an effect really? If the Act has an effect, what is its contribution to the total reduction? The Stable Bounded Theory was applied and it found that the Act of the 74 had a true effect, and the effect is greater than other forces, such that, in 2015, 86 per cent of the total reduction was due to the Act, and only 13.3 percent to other forces.

Palavras-chave : Population policy; fertility; Stable Bounded Theory; confounding factors.